There have been a lot of rumors flying lately about the direction in which the pickup-truck world is heading. Those who are panicking about it are convinced the large-displacement V-8 is gone forever and we will be stuck with teeny, tiny unibodies. Those on the other side of the spectrum seem to think all trucks will somehow be exempt from the new fuel-economy regulations and everything will remain business as usual. It's safe to say neither side is exactly right, but it looks like the future may lie somewhere in the middle.
Yes, trucks are going to change, but this shouldn't be all that different from the recent progress of truck technology. New regulations may force technological advances to happen more quickly than in the past (and that will translate to higher MSRPs), but automakers will find a way to keep pickups on the road.
When you consider what truckbuilders have done to retain pickup capability while adhering to frequently changing laws and regulations, it's pretty impressive.
As safety and emissions standards continue to tighten, the equipment necessary to meet these standards has added weight to trucks, yet truckmakers have managed to increase horsepower and torque to accommodate the added mass, while improving fuel economy. Even with all of this, towing capacity has dramatically increased over the last 10-15 years.
We've seen cylinder-shutoff technology enter the mainstream pickup-truck market in the Silverado/Sierra and Ram. We've seen variable-valve timing make engines more efficient. We've seen hybrid power come to full-size trucks and SUVs. Vehicles are being built with stronger, lighter-weight materials than in the past. There are turbocharged V-6 engines out there said to offer V-8 power with V-6 fuel efficiency. With an upswing in the economy, we could see diesels in half-ton trucks (everyone has put their half-ton pickup diesel plans on hold, but I refuse to give up hope). They've shown they can improve the fuel efficiency of trucks and SUVs; there's no reason to think they couldn't continue to do so. Also on the plus side, it looks like 3/4- and one-ton trucks will still be exempt from the new standards.
Having said that, there is some bad news. It is important to note that automakers are going to do whatever they can to meet the new standards, and that will mean changes. Of the vehicles that sell, crossovers are one area that is doing well, and you will see more of them enter the market. In some cases, you may see unibody crossovers replace body-on-frame sport/utilities. That is an easy way for manufacturers to meet CAFE requirements: Crossovers are typically more fuel-efficient than body-on-frame SUVs, and there are plenty of people who buy them with four-cylinder engines. And 3/4-ton SUVs are no longer exempt from the fuel-economy regulations. We hope the Suburban, Expedition, et al. will survive, but we don't yet know the fate of those vehicles.
And you will see many more ultra-fuel-efficient, high-sales-volume small cars go on sale. But this isn't exactly bad news. If done right, this could be a huge plus for truck people. If commuters and car people opt for a lot of these super-frugal cars, that could mean there would be enough of the little cars on the books to balance out V-8-powered trucks. There could still be V-8 options available for those who are willing to pay extra--but you should expect that you'll have to pay more to get that V-8 power, and it may become more scarce. For those who don't necessarily need a V-8, there will be plenty of four- and six-cylinders out there, and those engines are getting more efficient and more powerful as time goes on.
If demand picks up for compact trucks, it could make sense for the truckmakers to revive the compact-truck category as a way to meet the 2012-2016 fuel-economy standards, and we're already seeing signs that at least one company is working in that direction (there may be a new Ford Ranger coming). But for these manufacturers to invest millions in all-new compact trucks, there must be a strong possibility of a payoff, and until there's enough demand for small trucks, there won't be new small trucks on the horizon any time soon. That seems a little backward--we've heard feedback from truck people, that you'd like to see new compact trucks on the market. Look at the buzz surrounding the upcoming Mahindra pickup. It would make sense that, if one company were willing to take a chance with the right compact truck at the right price, it would sell a lot of them and rejuvenate that category. Easier said than done, though, especially in this economy.
The bottom line is that there will still be trucks on the market that are capable of serious work duty, but they're probably going to cost more. But at least they'll still exist. Trucks will continue to survive, because when it comes right down to it, work still needs to get done and you just can't carry construction equipment, generators, and sheetrock in a smart or a Prius.