Convenience Store Industry Study Projects Diesel Growth, Gasoline Decline
Gasoline Still Projected as Predominant Light-Duty Fuel Through 2040
Since 2008, when we heard the early drumbeats of “diesels are coming,” there have been projections of large-scale increases in the number of models of diesel-powered vehicles. Now, seven years later, we’re finally seeing the manifestation of these promises in new models coming to market. According to a study released by the National Association of Convenience Stores (NACS), the growth in diesel model and fuel sales are projected to continue to grow through 2040.
The study projects a 24 percent decline in gasoline fuel consumption through 2040, while diesel’s share will increase by 26 percent. However, it’s projected diesel will remain predominantly a freight and cargo fuel, with gasoline retaining a more than 80 percent market share over the next two and a half decades. On a percentage basis, diesel-powered light-duty vehicles are projected to grow from 0.46 percent of the market to 3.62 percent.
Despite record production and inventories, natural gas is projected to remain a niche transportation fuel utilized primarily by municipal fleets and specialized applications. On a percentage basis, the biggest gains are projected for electric vehicles in the form of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), with a projected growth of more than 400 percent by 2040.
Source: Diesel Technology Forum, National Association of Convenience Stores